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Archive for December, 2008

The decline in residential property prices appears to be slowing, according to preliminary data from First American CoreLogic.

A preview of its November report shows that home prices fell 9.6 percent last month, compared with 10.4 percent in October and 11.2 percent in September.

“The consistent deceleration over the past two months with November indicating the same trend in price declines is encouraging because it could portend the trough in price declines,” says Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic.

Still, layoffs and the swollen supply of unsold homes remain a concern, he notes.

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RE/MAX is the United State’s No. 1 real estate franchise – and the nation’s No. 44 franchise overall – according to Entrepreneur magazine’s 30th Annual Franchise 500 survey.

The survey appears on the magazine’s Web site and in its January 2009 issue.

Subway bested McDonald’s to capture the top position overall. Behind No. 2 McDonald’s came Liberty Tax Service at No. 3.

Among real estate franchises, RE/MAX ranks No. 1 for the ninth time in the past nine years. The closest competitor – Keller Williams – came in at a distant No. 71.

RE/MAX ranks No. 10 overall in the Low-Cost Franchises category. It finished No. 1 last year.

Additionally, RE/MAX tops all real estate competitors at No. 38 on the Global Franchises list.

RE/MAX has a long, successful history in the survey. It ranked No. 10 overall a year ago, No. 11 in 2007, No. 8 in 2006, and No. 10 in 2005.

All companies in the rankings are judged by the same criteria, the most important being financial strength and stability, size and growth rate. Also considered: number of years in business, length of time franchising, start-up costs, litigation, percentage of terminations and financing options.

The factors are plugged into a Franchise 500 formula, with each eligible company receiving a cumulative score.

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The number of unsold new homes fell 34k in November, the most ever. There are now 372k unsold new homes for sale, significantly below the peak of 570k in June 2006.

The level is approaching normal. The supply problem is in the existing home market. It lags but it’s next: the underbuilding of homes relative to population growth will inevitably result in the filling up of those homes, whether through sale or rental–humans need shelter. I would expect inventories to decline at least 500k to 750k in 2009 because of the population/underbuilding issue. At least 500k will disappear from the underbuilding idea and a further 250k (at least) will result from low mortgage rates and incentives from Barack Obama to spur home buying (4.5% mortgages or tax credits or both).

The math on why this is happening is simple: the construction of new homes has fallen below that of household formation. Housing starts have recently been at about 600k annualized, which works out to about 400k new dwellings, because many new starts are restarts–tear downs and such. Birth statistics and Census Bureau data indicate that household formation will on average run at a pace of about 1.2 million in the current year and immediate years ahead, owing to population growth of about 3.0 million.

This means that home inventories–new and existing combined–could fall by at 600k over the next year, depending on the extent of household formation (it slows during recessions, although it is only a delay in the inevitable–kids won’t live home with their parents forever and roommates go their separate ways, eventually). Shelter is obviously a basic need, which makes the inventory call a bankable top-down theme for 2009.

Tony Crescenzi
Chief Bond Market Strategist
Miller Tabak + Co

source: cnbc.com

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Real estate professionals are encouraged to forge new relationships to generate business, but they should not forget past clients, as research shows the 20-year value of a client tops $93,000 on average. As that is an average, in many of our markets, that number is much higher.

What are YOU doing to continue your relationship with past clients? Whether it be a Buffini CAP program, a mailing you do every month or the monthly calendar that Creative Services can design and mail for you, I hope you’re doing something. If your marketing plan to these past clients is not monthly, you’re most likely not contacting them enough.

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Thirty-year fixed-rate mortgages interest rates fell to their lowest level on record, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market survey released Thursday.

The national average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages was 5.19 percent for the week ending Dec. 18, the lowest level since McLean, Va.-based Freddie Mac began the survey in 1971.

Rates were down from last week when it averaged 5.47 percent. A year ago, the mortgages averaged 6.14 percent.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.92 percent, down from 5.2 percent last week and 5.79 percent a year ago.

The 15-year rates have not been lower since April 1, 2004, when they averaged 4.84 percent.

“The decline [in 30-year fixed-rate mortgages] was supported by the Federal Reserve announcement on December 16th, when it cut the federal funds target to a record low and stated it stood ready to expand its purchases of mortgage-related assets as conditions warrant,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist in a statement.

Five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) averaged 5.60 percent this week, down from last week when it averaged 5.82 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 5.90 percent.

One-year Treasury-indexed ARMs averaged 4.94 percent this week, down from last week when it averaged 5.09 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 5.51 percent.

source: Baltimore Business Journal

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Congratulations to the following RE/MAX Associates that are in the Top 100 US Associates through October 2008.

Individuals

15. Willie H. Colston, RE/MAX Allegiance, Virginia Beach, VA

20. Anand Barnes, RE/MAX Allegiance, Ashburn, VA

58. Thomas S. Buerger, RE/MAX Allegiance, Washington, DC

Teams

8. Vicki Nellis, RE/MAX Allegiance, Burke, VA

56. Patricia A. Fales, RE/MAX Allegiance, Burke, VA

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The following represents market share for November 2008, based on listing units, for Virginia MRIS listings. RE/MAX increased its market share lead over Long & Foster, which found itself at a two year low.

RE/MAX: 14.99%

Long and Foster: 13.9%

Coldwell Banker: 7.37%

Keller Williams: 6.99%

Century 21: 5.29%

Weichert: 4.84%

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Interest rates are at 4.5 year lows. Financing is available with little or no money down. Inventory is high with builders and sellers willing to negotiate. A good time to buy? I think so! Worried about appreciation? You should not be as long as you’re looking at your home purchase as a long term investment (not to mention the warm shelter it brings from the elements and tax breaks too). Appreciation in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia has consistently out-gained the national average. Time to get off the fence!

House Price Appreciation by State

Five Year Appreciation
Virginia: 50%
Maryland: 57%
DC: 64%
US: 29%

Since 1980
Virginia: 353%
Maryland: 403%
DC: 522%
US: 269%

Percent Change in House Prices Period Ended September 30, 2008
source: Federal Financing Finance Agency

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RE/MAX Allegiance-Burke remains, by far, the most productive real estate office in Burke, VA. Allegiance is 18% more productive than Weichert and a whopping 23% more productive than Long & Foster.

Stats from the leading three Burke real estate offices:

RE/MAX Allegiance
97 Associates
745 YTD Transactions
7.68 Transactions Per Associate YTD

Weichert
52 agents
337 YTD Transactions
6.48 Transactions Per Associate YTD

Long & Foster
113 agents
707 YTD Transactions
6.25 Transactions Per Associate YTD

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The following represents market share for October 2008, based on listing units, for Virginia MRIS listings. Pretty remarkable considering the number of licensees Long & Foster has compared with RE/MAX.

RE/MAX:  16.25%

Long & Foster: 15.69%

Coldwell Banker:  6.59%

Keller Williams: 6.57%

Weichert: 5.34%

Century 21: 5.13%

Exit: 1.56%

McEnearney: 1.20%

Prudential: 1.17%

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